The college football slate of bets for this week looks fantastic. It also has the potential to be quite profitable. Here are five great bets for this weekend of college football. All lines are via Draft Kings as of Friday afternoon.
#16 Mississippi State @ #22 Kentucky: Kentucky +4 (-110)
The biggest key to this pick is the fact that Will Levis is going to play. We saw just how much of an impact he has on the game last week against South Carolina when he had to sit out. With Levis at quarterback, Kentucky is a very good team. They can compete with just about anyone in the SEC.
On the other side, this Mississippi State hype train has to end at some point. Yes, they have looked dominant in just about every game outside of a hiccup against LSU. However, their style of football is simply not sustainable. When you throw the ball almost fifty times a game, bad things are going to happen sometimes. This is why Mike Leach has never been able to compete for a national championship despite being a very good coach.
With Levis at quarterback, Kentucky’s ball-control offense should be back to normal. Look for the Wildcats to shorten the game, thus neutering Leach’s pass-happy offense. If Levis were not coming off an injury, the moneyline would be much more tempting. Since he might not be at a hundred percent, be cautious and take the points.
Minnesota @ #24 Illinois: Illinois +6.5 (+100)
This seems odd. You have an AP top 25 team getting a touchdown at home against an unranked opponent. It makes more sense when you look at the injury report. Illinois quarterback Tommy DeVito’s status for Saturday’s game is still in question. This line makes you think that the bookies do not have much confidence that he will play. That is the reason for this generous line.
Keep an eye on the injury report. If DeVito is playing, jump on this line quick; maybe even give the moneyline a look. Even without DeVito, I still like the Fighting Illini to cover. Bret Bielema has this defense rolling; they are giving up a measly eight points a game. Minnesota’s offense sputtered at home last week against a solid Purdue defense. The Golden Gophers will have an even tougher test this week on the road against a better unit. Take the points no matter what.
#8 Oklahoma State @ #13 TCU: Oklahoma State Moneyline (+155)
I love these odds. TCU is a hot commodity coming off wins over Kansas and Oklahoma. The hype from those wins was enough to make them a favorite against a very good Oklahoma State team. The Cowboys haven’t been tested nearly as much as the Horned Frogs have this season. That does not mean that TCU is the better football team.
If anything, I think the stage is set perfectly for some classic Big XII cannibalism. Oklahoma State beats TCU, then loses Bedlam, and everyone is tied at one loss. All joking aside, this game feels like a toss-up that should lean in the Cowboys’ favor. The +155 odds make it too good of an opportunity to pass up.
#4 Clemson @ Florida State: Clemson -3.5 (-105)
Can someone please explain this line to me? After some digging, it appears that the spread was originally 7.5 and has since dropped by four points. There really is not much explanation why other than speculation that the early-week action, which is typically when the pros bet, caused the line to move. If that is the case, this seems like an over-correction.
Sure, Florida State is better than it has been in a while, and this Clemson team is a far cry from those of the 2010s, but let’s not get carried away here. Meanwhile, the Seminoles are giving up over 155 yards per game on the ground. That is a losing proposition against one of the better rushing offenses in the country.
When a line moves like this, it can be scary, but stick to your guns. Rely on the facts. Clemson is healthy and has one of the best rosters in the country. They are playing a mediocre Florida State team. All they have to do to cover is win by more than a field goal. Just take Clemson to cover and don’t look back.
Stanford @ Notre Dame: Stanford +16.5 (-110)
This is going to be the most stressful play out of these five picks. Stanford is 1-4 against the spread this year and are too reliant on quarterback Tanner McKee. Furthermore, they do not have the offensive line to protect him. This leads to sacks and turnovers, which causes games to get out of hand.
Luckily, they are playing the most disappointing team in the country in Notre Dame. No program has failed to meet expectations quite like the Fighting Irish. This team has played down to opponents all season.
Stanford has just enough talent to keep up. Assuming they get up for this rivalry game, and Notre Dame continues to under-perform, we can expect this game to stay within two scores. Take the points.
That’s it for this week’s best bets on the college football slate. Stay tuned to ATB Network for more of this content in the future!
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